Trump Trades Resurge: Bitcoin to Peso Insights
New York, Oct. 18, Corners of financial markets could feel saying the victory of Trump again, as there are three weeks until election day.
Assets such as small capital stocks to bitcoin raised in these recent weeks. But the Mexican peso and treasures lost more strength than before. These moves were being called Trump trades earlier this year, after Joe Biden lost his favor.
Highlights:
1. Resurge in bitcoin and small capital stocks.
2. reduced strength in the Mexican peso and Treasury.
3. Election noise is roaring in America.
Let's go into deep analysis:
Recently, Trump was invited as a guest to the Bitcoin 2024 Nashville summit as there is an upsurge in its growth. with other most famous icons of Silicon Valley.
Trump gains on Polymarket might stem from a group of four polymarkets that have spent about $30 million worth of cryptocurrency on bets that he will win, the Wall Street Journal reported that on Friday. However, linking investment moves to Trump this time is more difficult.
"Some of this certainly could be being driven by Trump's improved position in the predictive markets," said Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers.
As the economic data is large, it is difficult to separate the cause from effect, he added.
"It's trade that most led to Trump's election prospects." Sosnic said.
Other beneficiaries include private pison operators Geo Group GEO.N and core civic companies, whose shares risen up to 18% and 10%, respectively. Trump has promised to crack down on illegal immigrants, which could boost demand for detention.
Russell 2000 has risen 4% since October. This has never been like this in the last 4 years. There are expectations that Trump will keep taxes low and reduce regalation too since 2021.
The Mexican peso, seen as vulnerable to new tariffs Trump plans to impose, is down 4% from its September high. as there is a new statement by Trump leading to this. Trump said on Monday he would slap tariffs as high as 200% on vehicles imported from Mexico.
In the Joe Biden era, economic policies are seen as growth-friendly and a catalyst for inflation, two factors that could lead to higher Treasury yields, which move inversely to bond prices and a stronger dollar. Since October, these are rising and can be related to Trump win-saying experts.
However, these elections are a little bit trickier to understand than they seem. We should be waiting for 2 months more to see any changes in this.